While it is encouraging to see that the political atmosphere has changed in recent years. Countries such as Sweden, Germany, the United Kingdom and the Netherlands are actively investing in studies and programmes on the effects of climate change and disasters in conflict-affected countries. The 2019 Global Assessment Report (GAR19) also contains a section on the need to increase investment in the fight against climate change and disaster risks in fragile countries. If this is not the case, the overall goal of achieving the Sendai framework, and in particular the E target, which we must achieve by 2020, will be totally compromised. I hope that this growing consensus will increase research on the effects of DRR and adaptation to climate change on conflict prevention. A three-class index system is designed to measure state fragility (MCFS). We also provide metrics that identify parts of the population of states that face a high climate burden. For very fragile countries such as Nigeria, with significant territorial commitment and large numbers of people facing high climate risks, policy approaches are likely to be systemic and will require a significant mobilization of financial resources to address major societal risks. Other highly sensitive countries, such as Colombia, appear to be exposed to more localized climate risks in high-density and high-exposure areas, such as the Colombian coastal city of Barranquilla. More targeted measures to address flood risks and mismanagement by the state in densely populated areas could be better adapted in such circumstances.
Efforts to help fragile states achieve stability and sustainability continue to face enormous challenges. Climate change is one of those challenges. This is true for a number of reasons: the high exposure of many fragile states to climate risks, their economic dependence on climate… One of the key factors on how vulnerable people are to climate change is the extent to which they can adapt to changes in climate change-sensitive resources and services they need. This capacity to adapt is based on a wide range of social factors, including poverty, public assistance, access to economic opportunities, the effectiveness of decision-making processes and the extent of social cohesion within and outside vulnerable groups. These factors are all related to the ability of the state to provide services and maintain institutions, which is often lacking in fragile states. For vulnerable countries, such as Bangladesh, where large numbers of people face very high climate pressures, it is essential to prevent the escalation of fragility risks to protect the gains of impotence and prevent large numbers of people from becoming vulnerable to the very high climate risks to which they are exposed. This is the case for a number of reasons, including: the high exposure of many climate-sensitive states; their economic dependence on climate-related sectors (particularly rainy agriculture); and their history of conflict, poverty and poor governance, all of which serve to increase vulnerability to climate change. If climate change and risks are not taken into account and addressed, peace-building programmes and projects will be undermined and jeopardize their long-term viability. By answering these questions, the research provides information on peaceful climate-resilient interventions that take into account the effects of short- and long-term climate risk as a contribution to the cause of conflict.
It also takes into account conflict-sensitive climate change measures, which aim to ensure that interventions at least do not increase the risk of conflict and preferably serve to improve opportunities for peace-building. This research also provides guidelines for access, understanding and use of climate information in fragile states, guidelines tailored to needs and capaci